99% of Fintwit Twitter Spaces Suck
I’m done unless it’s a George Noble space, which are 100% the best
So many twitter spaces suck. At large enough numbers, standard deviations take over. I think I’m done unless it’s George Noble’s, which are 100% the best in all of twitter. I’ll check for speakers but unless their is a STRONG MODERATOR of the conversation, they devolve into a stage of random people yelling dumb questions in the middle of basic answers.
Only on days where we have nothing to cover in the markets due to an KNOWN EVENT, will I spend time listening to other people’s unfiltered ideas. Now we wait until the afternoon. Jerome has the stage. We are simply audience members. You know what? It’s better to not worry about the market until tomorrow.
Tomorrow we will have real answers. Most of today we have no answers. Since I need something to pontificate on today, I’ll look rates. I use the 10/30 and 5/30 treasury.
Inflation took a spike higher, it’s obvious based on how the curve is working right now. Bonds know the truth. I follow trends, for now I short bonds and follow inflations rise. Jerome can derail anything but if the wisdom of the market is most powerful than any one person, I have to give a voice to screaming bond market.
The fall in inflation during June is what gave us the rally or at least contributed to it.
Jerome is looking at this same chart, right? Does he see something he can do quantitative easing into? Doubtful, if anything he needs to deal with a childhood demon in his life, treat inflation like the bully on the playground who picked on Jerome. Everyone gets picked on at some point, either you bully or you get bullied. Jerome is about bully inflation into submission.
Now who gets the worst part of this retribution? It has to be long-only equity managers who have been flush with cash and dumb ideas for a dozen years. I’d rather be a yo-yo with a nearly broken string because that crash will be less painful. What I assume Jerome is really fighting inflation of is money managers. Especially subpar ones.
If there are 10,000 hedge funds we probably need to purge the market of nearly 80% to regrow the forest of good ideas. This is a decade long crusade by the federal reserve. Let’s stop thinking the next meeting matters when it’s clear the next decade is a toggle between rates up and rates down. Until the toggle is stuck back on LIQUIDITIY, we have no easy path.
Who do you trust? CNBC or the 5-year treasury? Don’t be dumb…
Everyone expects a drop, it makes me think we rally. No matter if it’s 0.75 or 1.00 basis points raise by Jerome today, we have everyone looking in one direction. I fear consensus in the market, we all should. I’ll stay short but cut my positions down and buy some weird calls for Friday on SPY 0.00%↑ IWM 0.00%↑ QQQ 0.00%↑